A private jet thought to be carrying notorious Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has crashed in Russia killing all 10 on board, and raising speculations about the man’s death – which happened in mysterious circumstances.
Many are looking at Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin, who’s enemies have a way of vanishing or dying in shady circumstances. However, a geopolitical expert says that Putin isn’t the only one who would benefit from Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s death.
“Wagner represents a greater tussle within Russia. There is no country with more moving parts than the Russian Federation. The direction they’re going in is an intra-institutional conflict within the Russian Federation,” Alp Sevimlisoy, a Geopolitical Strategist and the CEO of his own specialist corporation headquartered in Istanbul, tells The Mirror.
“Since the start, we’ve been seeing different narratives and views and what emerged as a third party. Wagner never really fit in the mould of either. What we are seeing is a play-by-play of consequences within Russia,” added Mr Sevimlisoy.
The Russian Civil Aviation Authority tonight offically claimed Prigozhin and his right hand man Dmitry Utkin were on board the plane, while the Wagner-affiliated Grey Zone Telegram channel also said their leader’s body was found in the wreckage.
When asked about Putin’s role in Prigozhin’s death, the geopolitical strategist explained the party behind the death is the one who stands to benefit most from Wagner’s destruction. “The Wagner was a third path that was essentially a pain for GRU and Russian intelligence. Rather than looking at who did it today, we must see who stands to benefit from the consolidation of Wagner resources,” he said.
What the death of Yevgeniy Prigozhin will mean for Putin and Russia
Mr Sevimlisoy added: “Wagner is a multi-form entity, apparent in local governments and mining resources ranging from subsaharan Africa to south amber, feeding into state entities of the Russian Federation.. [we are looking at] where the absorption will occur.
“GRU will absorb the remnants of what was the Wagner group. GRU is the most powerful institution within the Russian Federation. Putin’s biggest rival is now GRU, in terms of resources, monetary power, and people. GRU has another world view.”
A second expert, Mykola Volkivskyi, Former Advisor to the Chairman of the Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament and president of the First International Ukrainian Foundation of Development, told The Mirror: “Today is exactly two months since the start of the so-called Prigozhin coup. Back then, Prigozhin’s actions dealt a huge blow to Putin’s image. His reputation as a ‘strong leader’ was significantly damaged, as he failed to keep his protégés from the demonstrative conflict that the whole world witnessed.
“Accordingly, this reduced his ability to influence the situation inside Russia. After the coup, Putin no longer looked untouchable. This precedent is the first time in almost 24 years of Putin’s de facto rule in Russia. Putin had less and less of everything; people, money, weapons, influence – everything that allowed him not only to continue the war but also to hold the situation in Russia itself.
“His death can be Putin’s payback, which he successfully realized exactly two months later.”
Looking ahead at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Both experts agree that this is a plus for Ukraine. One thing political experts are stunned by is “how quickly [Ukraine has] become adept at new technological resources.” As we talk about Ukraine getting these weapons, keep in mind that these weapons are technologically comprehensive, and it takes years for militaries to become adept at working with them, explained Mr Sevimlisoy.
“[This development] is a demonstrable example of why Ukraine should be in NATO. Any country that can stand up to Russia and be this adept at warfare deserves to be a candidate,” added Mr Sevimlisoy. “We can ensure that the end results with the reintegration of Crimea back into Ukraine.
“The three main countries supporting Ukraine through the war, are the US, UK, and Turkey. Turkey is one of the most active in supporting Ukraine with technology, and now they’re the supreme military power in the region. Going forward within the parameters of NATO and Ukraine and looking forward into Russia, what we will witness is a further thinning of the narratives – there will be one narrative that emerges with the demise of Wager’s leadership.
“From here on in, we as NATO must ensure our objective focus on targeting Russian military installations in and around the Black Sea, as well as the grain agreement, which was originally between Turkey, Ukraine and Russia. [The agreement] should be boiled down between Ukraine and Turkey without Russia.”
Turkey can provide safety and control with these developments in their military.
“I think that an extraordinary council of the Wagner group’s command will be convened shortly to discuss their next steps and further actions. Much will depend on the behaviour and reaction of Alexander Lukashenko (after all, it is not on the territory of Belarus, where the largest number of Wagnerites are located),” added Mr Volkivskyi.
Alp Sevimlisoy originally featured as per: Daily Mirror
