Land grabs, hundreds of thousand of conscripts thrown on to the front lines, and a nuke for anyone who dares stand in his way: Vladimir Putin has spent the past week doubling down on his war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
But his bluster belies a simple fact: Russia is losing the war, and he knows it.<\/p>\n
The despot is desperate. His army is in tatters, his battleplans shot, he\u2019s burning through his cash reserves at an unsustainable rate, and winter is looming. Meanwhile Ukraine\u2019s army continues to advance across the country, giving Kyiv a viable path to victory. Which begs the question: What happens if Russia is beaten?<\/p>\n
According to Alp Sevimlisoy \u2013 millennium fellow at think-tank Atlantic Council, who spoke to MailOnline \u2013 that would mean Putin being deposed, Russia itself breaking apart, and NATO in a face-off with China over the spoils.<\/p>\n
The West must begin preparing for that eventuality now, he adds, otherwise it will open the door for Beijing to muscle into regions such as Siberia, central Asia, Africa and South America where it already has toe-holds but will see opportunities as Russian power fades.<\/p>\n
\u2018We have to move into vacuums, seek to exert influence, and then we have to face up to the People\u2019s Republic of China. China is globally connected superpower, and we have to combat them effectively,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n
Ukrainian troops, having routed Russian troops to the east of Kharkiv last month, are continuing to push east \u2013 taking the city of Lyman at the weekend and pushing into Luhansk oblast in the last 24 hours<\/p>\n
Ukraine is also making gains in the south, breaking through Russian defensive lines on the Dnipro River and pushing towards the city itself from the west, threatening Putin\u2019s forces with a major retreat<\/p>\n
Putin has tried to stem the rot by annexing regions, conscripting hundreds of thousands of soldiers and threatening nuclear war \u2013 but an expert has told MailOnline he faces being deposed with NATO ended up in a face-off with China<\/p>\n
Back in February, when Putin first launched his \u2018special military operation\u2019, such as scenario was barely thinkable.<\/p>\n
The West may have been rooting hard for Ukraine, but few thought victory was possible \u2013 they were outnumbered, outgunned, and hemmed in from three sides by the full force of the Russian military, then estimated to be second only to the US. It may take days, or weeks, perhaps months, but few doubted Kyiv would eventually fall.<\/p>\n
But a series of spectacular miscalculations by Putin and his generals: Poor preparation and planning, corruption that had rotted Russia\u2019s military stockpiles from the inside out, and poor morale among the troops combined to hand Ukraine the initiative \u2013 which its commanders exploited ruthlessly.<\/p>\n
Alp Sevimlisoy, a fellow with the Atlantic Council think tank, believes Putin would not survive defeat \u2013 and that Russia itself may begin to crumble<\/p>\n
The lightning advance on Kyiv that Putin had banked on to topple the regime and hand him control of the country within a matter of days slowed, then stopped, and finally culminated in a \u2018goodwill gesture\u2019 \u2013 aka a full-scale retreat \u2013 as the Kremlin instead set its sights on \u2018liberating\u2019 the Donbas.<\/p>\n
Despite the wide open lands of Ukraine\u2019s eastern industrial heartland being infinitely more-suited to Russian tactics \u2013 devastating artillery bombardments followed by slow troop and tank advances \u2013 problems persisted. Again, the advance slowed, and then largely stopped.<\/p>\n
Ukraine then delivered a devastating one-two punch: An assault on Kherson in the south which sucked in Russian troops, before a hook east out of Kharkiv broke Russian lines, precipitated a full-scale rout, and handed thousands of square miles back to Kyiv\u2019s control in a matter of days.<\/p>\n
Russia has been left reeling. Its military may not be flat on the canvas yet, but a heavy blow has been landed and its knees have begun to buckle. A few more, and a knockout is on the cards.<\/p>\n
Speaking just after Ukraine launched its Kharkiv counter-attack, Mr Sevimlisoy told MailOnline: \u2018The Ukrainians have the momentum \u2013 they are winning. But this conflict won\u2019t just end with both sides going away and saying \u2018that\u2019s that\u2019, it will reverberate throughout Russia and the region.\u2019<\/p>\n
That would mean Russian power fading not just from the likes of South America and Africa \u2013 where it has previously sent mercenaries, handed out loans and built infrastructure \u2013 but also from ex-Soviet satellite states such as Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Armenia, he believes.<\/p>\n
And Russia itself could succumb to in-fighting, with rebellious regions seeking to break away from Moscow\u2019s control as power-brokers within the Kremlin turn on one-another and vie for Putin\u2019s throne.<\/p>\n
Though the prospect of a Putin-free Russia may once have seemed the stuff of fantasy, Mr Sevimlisoy believes there is almost no way for him to survive defeat in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
\u2018I can\u2019t see a future for Putin [if he loses the war],\u2019 Mr Sevimlisoy said. \u2018How do you go back to your people after this? After you\u2019ve weaponized food and energy, how do you go back to the world stage after that?\u2019<\/p>\n
A Russian rocket slams into a Ukrainian special forces Humvee somewhere in Ukraine as Kyiv\u2019s offensive in the south continues. According to reports on Telegram, all troops survived the encounter<\/p>\n
Ukrainian special forces troops are pictured advancing across the south of Ukraine amid reports of a breakthrough in Russian lines that may have pushed Putin\u2019s men back more than 10 miles<\/p>\n
Ukrainian tanks open fire on Russian positions in Kherson, amid a major offensive in the region that aims to recapture the city from Russia \u2013 which would be a major blow to Putin\u2019s invasion<\/p>\n
Ukrainian troops are filmed ambushing Russian armoured vehicles using anti-tank launchers in Donetsk, leaving at least one of them destroyed<\/p>\n
The wreck of a Russian Tigr armoured vehicle is abandoned on a forest road (bottom centre) in Donetsk as others fleet (top) following a Ukrainian ambush<\/p>\n
He\u2019s not alone in thinking so. In the weeks since Ukraine\u2019s counter-attack, experts have openly questioned whether Putin is facing the end \u2013 Professor Grigory Yudin predicted so to Canada\u2019s CBC, ex-British army officer Richard Kemp mulled the idea in The Telegraph, and it was also debated by Foreign Affairs magazine.<\/p>\n
Mr Sevimlisoy believes Putin\u2019s ouster would fire the starting pistol on all manner of in-fighting within Russia: Different branches of the military turning on one-another, regions bidding to break away from the country, and ex-Soviet satellite states looking for allies many miles away from Moscow.<\/p>\n
\u2018Russia\u2019s failure in Ukraine is failure of statecraft,\u2019 he said. \u2018There will be groups saying \u201cthis isn\u2019t how we should be governed\u201d. The military will say the campaign has been a failure.<\/p>\n
\u2018I think collapse will come from infighting in the intelligence services and military, and forces within Russia will see to use this as opportunity to say: \u201cWe can govern ourselves better and we have enough international support to push for independence.\u201d We should definitely support that.\u2019<\/p>\n
But there is no guarantee that whoever replaces Putin will be any less extreme. Many believe the heir-apparent to be Sergey Naryshkin, head of the foreign intelligence service, who is considerably more-hawkish than Putin when it comes to the West.<\/p>\n
That means NATO\u2019s mission will be to \u2018contain Russia and the Russian armed forces\u2019, Mr Sevimlisoy argues, but also \u2018we\u2019d be working to contain China.\u2019<\/p>\n
Russian power would wane over ex-Soviet satellite states such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan \u2013 and even further abroad, in Africa and South America where Putin has been propping up dictatorial regimes with mercenaries, cheap loans and trade deals.<\/p>\n
NATO must be ready to compete in all those arenas, or else risk losing them to Beijing\u2019s sway.<\/p>\n
There are already signs that the rot is setting in. Kazakhstan, long an ally of Moscow, has been taking an increasingly defiant tone against Moscow \u2013 welcoming in more than 100,000 Russian men who had fled Putin\u2019s draft while also insisting that territorial integrity must be respected, though without directly mentioning Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Azerbaijan and Armenia \u2013 another ally of Moscow \u2013 resumed fighting a few weeks ago as Moscow tried to shore up its western flank against the Ukrainians, with Armenia forced to acknowledge that Putin was not going to help defend its territory, despite the two being in a security pact.<\/p>\n
And other nations that until now have given tacit support to Russia are beginning to voice concerns. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking at the UN a few days ago, urged Moscow not to let the Ukraine war \u2018spill over\u2019 and to \u2018protect the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries.\u2019<\/p>\n
India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, having initially tried to tread a careful middle ground on Ukraine, delivered an even bolder rebuke \u2013 telling the Kremlin: \u2018Today\u2019s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you about this.\u2019<\/p>\n
Turkey\u2019s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke out to say that he had talked with Putin at a recent summit in Uzbekistan, and believes \u2018he wants to end this as soon as possible\u2019 because \u2018the way things are going right now are quite problematic\u2019.<\/p>\n
Destroyed Russian tanks in a vehicle graveyard in Izium, which was recently recaptured by Ukrainian forces in a lightning offensive that routed Putin\u2019s troops and placed Ukraine firmly on the front foot<\/p>\n
Russian reservists that have been conscripted into the army to fight in Ukraine fire a machine-gun on a training range somewhere in the Rostov region before being sent to the frontlines<\/p>\n
A Russian reservist, called up as part of Putin\u2019s mobilisation order, practices firing a heavy machine-gun at a range in the Rostov region before being deployed into combat<\/p>\n
Destroyed Russian armored vehicles left behind by Putin\u2019s army after they fled the city of Izium, in Kharkiv oblast<\/p>\n
And Erdogan\u2019s position could be key to ending the war, Mr Sevimlisoy believes, because it would be Turkey together with Ukraine that would be key to containing the Kremlin after defeat.<\/p>\n
\u2018Russia will have to come to terms with the fact that it is no longer a world power, but a state \u2013 a Black Sea state whose system nobody seeks to imitate,\u2019 he said. \u2018And what we\u2019re going to see and are seeing now is that the domination of this region will be up to Turkey.\u2019<\/p>\n
Equipped with the latest-generation US fighter jets and hypersonic missiles, Mr Sevimlisoy believes that Turkey \u2013 alongside a Ukrainian military adept at fighting Russia \u2013 will be the key to Western influence in the region and further beyond into central Asia.<\/p>\n
This is necessary, he says, because it will put NATO and the West in a strong position to compete with Beijing.<\/p>\n
\u2018In any region where Russian influence wanes, we have to make sure we have to create regional partnerships, to have permanent presences,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n
\u2018We have to move into vacuums, seek to exert influence, and then we have to face up to the People\u2019s Republic of China. China is globally connected superpower, and we have to combat them effectively.<\/p>\n
\u2018We have far more military experience within NATO than the Chinese do, and that is to our advantage, but we have to put boots on ground in these places, to ensure that when the time comes to stand up to them \u2013 and that time will come \u2013 we\u2019re not playing catch-up.\u2019<\/p>\n
Alp Sevimlisoy originally featured as per: NY Breaking<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Land grabs, hundreds of thousand of conscripts thrown on to the front lines, and a nuke for anyone who dares stand in his way: Vladimir Putin has spent the past week doubling down on his war in Ukraine. But his bluster belies a simple fact: Russia is losing the war, and he knows it. The […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1289,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ny-breaking"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n